|Dew Point:||44.1°F (6.7°C)|
|Wind:||From the SE at 8.0 MPH Gusting to 12.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.01" (1016.1 mb)|
Partly Cloudy then Slight Chance Rain ShowersLow: 51
Rain ShowersHigh: 53 Low: 37
Rain Showers LikelyHigh: 43 Low: 36
Partly SunnyHigh: 49 Low: 35
SunnyHigh: 61 Low: 44
A slight chance of rain showers after 5am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. South wind around 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Rain showers. Cloudy. High near 53, with temperatures falling to around 46 in the afternoon. Southwest wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Rain showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 37. West wind 17 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Rain showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 43. West wind 17 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of rain showers before 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Northwest wind 12 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Partly sunny, with a high near 49.
Mostly clear, with a low around 35.
Sunny, with a high near 61.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.
... A cold front will bring a quick, soaking rain and gusty wind to the area late tonight and Wednesday. Thursday will be chilly with lingering showers in northwest flow. Dry weather and a warming trend will follow for Friday and the weekend as high pressure returns.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Plenty of sunshine remains in place thanks to departing high pressure. Winds will soon pick up a bit in response to the tightening pressure gradient between the departing high near the New Jersey coast and the deepening low over the Upper Midwest. Clouds will start to increase later this evening as increasingly SW flow brings more moisture. This flow and ample mixing will serve to keep low temperatures well above normal.
The low to our west will become more vertically stacked as it moves into Michigan overnight, with the mid-level trough becoming neutrally-tilted by 12Z. With the system winding up and the surface boundary remaining west of Pittsburgh through 12Z, have slowed down the arrival of rain showers just a bit, in accordance with hi-res model blends like the HREF.
Towards morning, as a jet max rotates around the upper low, increasing jet dynamics/diffluence aloft will support an enhancement to lift, and thus shower intensity. This, along with some modest MUCAPE, also supports adding a slight thunder chance to southeast Ohio before dawn, after which instability fades.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The upper trough will become negatively-tilted after 12Z, helping to increase the speed of the surface front and kick it through the region by 18Z. Near 100 PoPs are appropriate with the front given the strong support for lift that continues from the overnight period. Showers will end fairly rapidly behind the front as a dry slot rotates into the region, with some breaks in the clouds expected for a short period. Even with the sun, temperatures will remain nearly steady or drop a bit during the afternoon.
Wind gusts will pick up behind the front as cold advection and steepening low-level lapse rates allow for some mixing of stronger gusts to the surface, especially during the afternoon and evening. Afternoon gusts of 20-30 knots will be widespread. Ridge gusts, especially above 3000 feet, will be higher. For now, do not expect advisory-level gusts as BUFKIT momentum transfer algorithm does not support 40 knot gusts, even high up, but this will be monitored.
Clouds will fill in during the late afternoon and evening as the dry slot moves off and cold advection continues. The approaching 500mb trough axis will support scattered to numerous showers Wednesday night. Northwest and cyclonic flow will keep these showers going through Thursday and Thursday night, with a transition to a typical I-80/ridge focus by 12Z Thursday.
850mb temperatures go subzero tomorrow night, and with the strong upslope flow and sufficiently cold boundary layer temperatures, the higher ridges should see their first snowflakes of the season into Thursday morning. A modest accumulation may even be seen, but this will be the exception with the ground remaining quite warm.
Shower activity should come to an end Thursday night as cold advection eases and moisture thins, but northwest flow should keep clouds around. Below-normal temperatures will persist.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure returns on Friday, along with rising 500mb heights. This will lead to mostly dry weather through the weekend, along with a warming trend. High temperatures will again reach the mid to upper 60s Saturday and Sunday.
The models are indicating that yet another dynamically-strong system will develop over the Plains on Sunday/Sunday night and lift across the western Great Lakes through Tuesday. Details are still in dispute this far out, although increasing rain chances are certainly indicated for early next week.