Wisp Resort / McHenry

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McHenry, MD

Forecast Discussion



... Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will continue this week, followed by a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm Saturday with a weak cold front.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Relatively calm winds, low dewpoints, and clear skies present favorable conditions for radiational cooling overnight. Lows will be in the 50s in general with pockets of upper 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Upper ridging will slowly retrograde westward across the region over the second half of the week, resulting in continued dry conditions. Temperatures will increase through the period with rising 850mb temperatures and increasing 1000-850mb thickness. Deep diurnal mixing and dry air in place will support highs approaching the upper 80s by Thursday and possibly low 90s Friday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak front is progged to move south-southwest across the northeastern CONUS Saturday, as the high moves westward. Moisture and upper support is progged to be limited, with 20 to 40% chances for a shower or thunderstorm. The activity will be mainly concentrated over the east where the focal point of initiation will be along the ridges. Models have been persistent with chances reaching the OH border and even into OH. This certainly could add wetting rainfall to some spots.

Latest guidance shows less than average consensus Sunday and heading into next week in regards to the mentioned ridge and an upper low dropping south over the northeast CONUS. In any case, temperatures will trend down to more seasonable levels as ridging amps up over the central US. Lingering moisture across the area, with the upper trough diving south over the eastern Middle Atlantic states and a lingering boundary over the south will make for potential convection on Saturday night and also through Sunday afternoon.

Strong ridging reestablishes for the beginning of next week and will likely squelch any significant convection. However, low level moisture infiltrating the boundary layer under the ridge and the exiting trough to the east may be enough for afternoon convection each day into next week.