Wisp Resort / McHenry

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McHenry, MD

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... High pressure will shift eastward tonight as low pressure lifts northeastward from the southern plains. Rain will spread over the Ohio valley by daybreak Sunday. In addition to the rainfall, some gusty wind will accompany showers in the afternoon.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Quiet weather continues in the near term with high pressure sliding eastward this evening. Some high clouds may begin to overspread the region by nightfall. Otherwise, warm advection will keep temperatures elevated, though some cooling should take place before precip arrives.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Strong closed low in the southern plains will eject northeastward and become positively tilted with time as it makes it's approach on Sunday. Rain should begin before daybreak, spreading northeastward. A strong moisture feed from the Gulf with PWAT values approaching 1.20 inches, which is anomalously high for the region in late November, will result in a period of efficient precipitation, especially closer to the low itself in Ohio. That being said, given the speed of the system, and placement of the heaviest precipitation, there are no concerns for flooding at this time.

Accompanying the precipitation will be strong low level jet as indicative on model soundings. While an inversion will be in place in the morning, some mixing of these stronger winds to the surface is possible with help from any convection that develops. Some of the hi res guidance does suggest the development of a convective line, which could bear watching tomorrow. Will maintain the gusty wind wording in the HWO.

The progressive pattern will usher the system out of the area rather quickly with the main bulk of moisture exiting before 00Z. Post frontal moisture along with westerly to northwesterly winds will keep some showers across the area, especially in the north but temperatures should remain just warm enough to keep frozen precip out of the forecast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A post-frontal trough/NW flow will maintain low chance PoPs into Monday with cold advection returning seasonal temperatures. After this time, high pressure builds in for Tuesday with warm advection resuming ahead of yet another low pressure system.

By Wednesday, the pattern becomes more amplified as the upper trough deepens over the central CONUS. This system will drag a more potent cold front across the region midweek, returning temperatures to at or below seasonal values and bring the chance for some scattered snow showers.

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