Forecast Discussion
Summary
SYNOPSIS
... High pressure will promote above average temperature today and Friday with zero precipitation chances as well as localized morning fog chances. Seasonable temperatures with generally low rain chances will persist through the weekend and next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... An area of mid level clouds in weak warm advection aloft will continue to track across the region this morning. The 12Z PIT sounding and surface observations indicate cloud bases from 8,000 to 11,000 ft. These should gradually diminish this afternoon with dry advection in the mid levels.
Otherwise, dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Highs are expected to be around 5 degrees above average.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The aforementioned high will continue its eastward progression into New England and off of the Atlantic coast into late-week, although a ridge axis is expected to extend back over our area. This should keep winds light and generally out of the east with dry weather expected. Given the fairly stagnant clear and calm conditions, fog will be possible each morning. Building heights in wake of the early week trough should lend to an uptick in temperatures, resolving to above average into Thursday and Friday.
Meanwhile, convection off the coast of Florida is expected to organize into a low ahead of a passing trough Thursday. This upper trough will become negatively tilted, allowing the low to push north into the Carolinas. There is still a degree of uncertainty as to whether this low remains baroclinic or develops into a tropical system. Regardless, no impacts are expected in our region in the short term.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Ensemble clusters are divergent in the handling of the Coastal low as it pushes into the Northeast blocking. Some solutions resolve to it progressing into the Atlantic, leaving our region mostly dry, relatively cloud free, and perhaps a bit warmer. Some solutions resolve to more of a stalling over the Delmarva Peninsula. As one might expect, this solutions tends towards a bit more high cloud cover, slightly cooler conditions, and perhaps some rain for eastern zones on Saturday and Sunday. This scenario seems a bit more likely for now.
Poor handling of the how the blocking and tropical low interact will trickle down into long term uncertainties in the forecast, with varying solutions in modeled position of a central Canadian ridge and its corresponding east coast positively tilted trough. Given most ensembles have the region stuck in the middle of the troughing and ridging, the current forecast calls for near- average temperatures and generally low precipitation chances to hedge the uncertainty.